Something is Not Adding Up Here.

This may sound ridiculous, but these markets have my brain going nuts. Will someone please explain how it is possible for oil to hit $123/barrel without phasing the consumer?

Oh, I know why, because Americans are living off of credit cards and debt. But, something still seems to be missing.

According to a report by CNBC-
"The relatively bad economy is going to continue through the summer, which is going to put a damper on things," says Michael D. Cohn, of Atlantis Asset Management. "That's partially a result of the ridiculously high oil prices, so I think it's going to affect the market this summer."

Out of all the reports that flood the market, this is by far in my opinion the most accurate one that I have seen. There is always the possibility of other reports (housing, oil, earnings, etc) that may alter this particular outlook.

I will stand firm on my 1315-1340 range for the S & P 500 and plan to make the interfund transfer at that time.

Please feel free to state your opinion on any topic, as it may impact the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), economy, stock market, etc.

My current Thrift Savings Plan position as of 07-May-2008:

G Fund- 100%
F Fund- 0%
C Fund- 0%
S Fund- 0%
I Fund- 0%

It is nice to see that we have new members. Please don't forget to tell your friends and co-workers about the website. Make sure to subscribe to the FREE-EMAIL Alert on the right side of the page if you have not already done so. Best wishes until next time and Stay Blessed!

What is going on?

I have been puzzled with the markets over the past couple of weeks. For whatever reason, the markets continue to keep moving higher without me. If there was ever a time to be in the market, the time obviously was over the past two weeks.

As many of you know, I am still sitting patiently in the G Fund. Time is of the essence when trying to jump back into the stock market. Miscalculating my market timing can lead to significant losses if not performed correctly. Since I am clearly beating the market in 2008, I have time and leverage on my side for the next pullback or new resistance level.

My returns for the month of April will be updated tomorrow night. I plan on heading back into the S & P 500 after it sheds a few percentage points "hopefully" in the month of May. If the stock market continues to move higher, I may be forced to hop on the bandwagon.

My position as of 01-May-2008:

G Fund- 100%

F Fund- 0%

C Fund- 0%

S Fund- 0%

I Fund- 0%

Congrats to all of the participants that stayed in the International Fund (I Fund) for the entire month of April. The poll surveyed participants for the month of April, obviously many of the readers stuck it out in the I Fund. Approximately 43 percent of the readers anticipated the I Fund having the largest gains for the month .

Please feel free to express any comments or concerns in regards to the different Thrift Savings Plan Funds, new TSP regulations, or any other retirement issues.

How to make an interfund transfer work

Not understanding how to make interfund transfers and access account information has been a big deal over the past few months because of the markets weakness. As questions continue to flood in concerning interfund transfers and account access problems, I will explain how to go about making an interfund transfer and obtaining personal account information. Many readers may already use these steps, but this post is to inform people that do not have account access or know which TSP Funds they currently own.

Note: This is one of the various ways to make an interfund transfers and is not recommended unless you deem necessary from your financial advisor.

1. Get account information: Login to the Thrift Savings Plan website.
   If you do not have your password or account number, fill out the required information required by the Thrift Saving Plan on the TSP website. Upon completion of the request, you will receive either your password or account number via mail. Keep in mind that if your address has changed you will be required to complete the TSP-9 Form.
   
2. Sign into your account:
   Once you have possession of your TSP Account information, visit the Thrift
   Savings Plan website and click on Account Access. There will be a tab on the
   screen labeled "All Account Transaction." Click on the tab and you should be
   directed to the security page. If you are the primary account holder for your
   account, click agree. DO NOT ACCESS ANY OTHER TSP PARTICIPANTS
   ACCOUNTS. Now that you have "Agreed" to entering the site, enter the
   information that the TSP provided you in the mail.
   
3. Interfund Transfers:
   Now that you have accessed your account, there are ten different tabs to select from. If you do not currently know which funds you are invested in, click on the tab labeled "Your Account Balance." Once you have determined which TSP Fund(s) best pertain to your own financial goals, click on the tab labeled "Interfund Transfers."
   
4. Make the move:
   After you have navigated your way into the Interfund Transfer page, the list of current holding (Account Balance and Position in Funds) will allow you to match up with your desired allocation. If your current position does not match your desired position, click on the tab "Request Interfund Transfer." A page requiring your e-mail address and desired interfund transfer position will appear. Upon completing the information, press the "Submit" button and verify for accuracy.
   

You have now completed an interfund transfer in your Thrift Savings Plan. Many participants of the Thrift Savings Plan are a bit confused with the term interfund transfer and why it is such a big deal. Hopefully these few steps will help you gain a better understanding of how to access your account information and make interfund transfers. If you look at any successful investor, he/she continuously monitors their account positions to remain diversified. Having the ability to manage your own account is a necessity and should be utilized at your own free will.

Questions or Comments?

I Stand Corrected

The markets clearly showed a strong bullish signal this week indicating there is plenty of optimism in the United States and abroad. Even with the great run this week, I know with out a doubt that next week the markets will move back lower.

The Thrift Savings Plan moves with the market just like any other retirement account (Excluding Bonds/T-Notes), in order for the market to continue this rally, the majority of investors would have to be bullish from here on out. I personally continue to support the markets and remain favorable towards an upward pattern but strongly believe that the markets are making false upward moves to re-coup some losses.

After the S & P 500 revisits the 1300 range, I believe that we will head higher. Many readers may think that I am crazy for saying 1300, but just copy and paste this post and read it towards the middle of May. I previously thought that the bottom would be in next week but that may be delayed because of all of the earnings being released.

Ask yourself one question. If crude oil is sitting at record highs going into the driving season, how much extra cash does this free up for individual investors to put into the market? Remember there is pure speculation that the housing market will bottom at the end of this year (I think summer of 2009) and various other reports that are trying to influence people to buy right now. I just think that waiting for another 5-6 percent down swing will set up for a nice end of the year return.

Patience is paramount in the current market situation. Yes, I may have been sitting in the G Fund this week and lost out on the run, but that does not change my current returns that are up over 3% for the month of April, and over 7% year-to-date. The downward swing will quickly approach and I will be back in business again.

Questions or Comments?

My Position in the Thrift Savings Plan as of 18-Apr-2008:

G Fund- 100%
F Fund- 0%
C Fund- 0%
S Fund- 0%
I Fund- 0%

Please disregard the old post that are coming through the Feedburner E-Mail Subscription. I am altering the format of the site and Feedburner is picking them up as new post. If you type in WWW.TSPINVESTOR.COM, you will get the most recent post.

My interfund transfer will have to wait

The overall reports this morning paired with Intel, JP Morgan, and Coca-Cola earnings, make moving into the market this morning unrealistic.

I did plan on moving into the market today but with the surprising upbeat notes, I will have to wait until later this week or maybe next. Today we will probably see a desperation rally that will be short lived.

There should be no reason why the S & P 500 should not hit 1315 or lower over the next couple of weeks. If this number is met, count me in for at least a few weeks. I do not like sitting on the sidelines during small rallies but I have to pick and choose my battles due to the limited interfund transfers.

Questions or Comments?

Wednesday is Looking Nice

I will monitor the markets tomorrow and Wednesday morning for a stabilized entry point. If the indicators are right, I will be moving back into the market.

Before I make any judgements, I would like to see the:

1. Producer Price Index

2. Consumer Price Index

3. Housing Starts/ Building Permits

Obviously, we know that these reports probably will not be stellar, but the results may push the markets to technical levels that MUST be met before moving higher.

Industrial Utilization along with the Capacity Utilization are a couple of other reports to watch, but my eyes are going to be on the Housing Starts.


Current Thrift Savings Plan Position:

100% G Fund

I will make sure to update my position Wednesday morning. There is a strong possibility that I may decide to make my final interfund transfer for the month April in my Thrift Savings Plan (TSP).

Make sure to sign up for the FREE E-Mail Alert if you have not already done so.



AS A REFRESHER, I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THESE POST ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO MY PERSONAL THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN ACCOUNT. I STRONGLY RECOMMEND CONSULTING A FINANCIAL CONSULTANT PRIOR TO MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS.

On the Right Track for Profits?

The month of April has proven to be extremely volatile allowing participants of the Thrift Savings Plan to add significant gains if done correctly. One key factor if you decide to make interfund transfers in your Thrift Savings Plan is a little buddy I like to call profit. Profit in terms of book value (Account Balance) is critical because you have more leverage or buying power when the markets drops like today.

Keep in mind that when you invest in the Thrift Savings Plan, it is the same as investing in the stock market. Each Fund that you purchase whether it is the G, F, C, S, I, or Lifecycle Funds are all tracked by a price per share. Buying the TSP Funds back at a cheaper price allows you to acquire more shares and thus a greater potential for a higher return.

Now lets talk about the Good or Bad stuff depending on your view-

We can already discount every bad piece of news that comes out, because we know that the times are tough now. An example of the bad news would include the Retail Sales number that will be out next week. The number from retail sales normally drive the markets, but since we are in a recession, the worse the number the better off we are in my opinion.

If we go under the number, analyst are sent scrambling trying to re-figure the next retail sales estimates. From this point, the analyst will probably "low-ball" the estimate for the next retail sales, making it look like the numbers were strong if we beat the estimate next time.

No matter how you look at the overall picture, we will start heading up much higher after this month. Don't lose patience if you are still in the market. I will be joining you next week.

Have an Awesome Weekend!



The FREE E-Mail Alert on the right side of the screen is available for those who want to keep up-to-date with my interfund transfers in the Thrift Savings Plan. Please continue to tell your friends and co-workers so everyone will benefit from this site.



If you would like me to post on a certain topic or article please feel free to email me at tspblog at gmail dot com.